22 Starship launches needed for Moon landing

NASA’s latest estimate shows 22 Starship launches are needed to support a Moon landing. This number has been a moving target over the years, with NASA typically reluctant to specify it exactly. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then-director of NASA’s Human Landing System, said the number was in the ‘high single digits to the low double digits,’ suggesting about a dozen launches. SpaceX would need to launch a ‘depot’ Starship and 11 ‘tanker’ Starships to fully load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage. Other officials have said ‘high teens,’ but now concerns are rising among some NASA officials that this might not be happening soon enough to allow SpaceX’s Starship rocket to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.

The number of Starship launches required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit such that it can fly out to the Moon, land there, and return to lunar orbit has been a moving target over the years. NASA has typically been reluctant to specify it exactly. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan said the number was in the ‘high single digits to the low double digits,’ suggesting about a dozen launches. SpaceX would need to launch a ‘depot’ Starship and 11 ‘tanker’ Starships to fully load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage. Other officials have said ‘high teens,’ but now concerns are rising among some NASA officials that this might not be happening soon enough to allow SpaceX’s Starship rocket to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.

A new estimate emerges from the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel’s quarterly meeting, where panel member Charlie Precourt (a former NASA astronaut) spoke about risks associated with the Artemis Program and landing humans on the Moon. This is the latest in a series of estimates that have shown the number of Starship launches required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit such that it can fly out to the Moon, land there, and return to lunar orbit has been a moving target over the years. NASA has typically been reluctant to specify it exactly. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan said the number was in the ‘high single digits to the low double digits,’ suggesting about a dozen launches. SpaceX would need to launch a ‘depot’ Starship and 11 ‘tanker’ Starships to fully load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage. Other officials have said ‘high teens,’ but now concerns are rising among some NASA officials that this might not be happening soon enough to allow SpaceX’s Starship rocket to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.

The number of Starship launches required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit such that it can fly out to the Moon, land there, and return to lunar orbit has been a moving target over the years. NASA has typically been reluctant to specify it exactly. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan said the number was in the ‘high single digits to the low double digits,’ suggesting about a dozen launches. SpaceX would need to launch a ‘depot’ Starship and 11 ‘tanker’ Starships to fully load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage. Other officials have said ‘high teens,’ but now concerns are rising among some NASA officials that this might not be happening soon enough to allow SpaceX’s Starship rocket to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.

The number of Starship launches required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit such that it can fly out to the Moon, land there, and return to lunar orbit has been a moving target over the years. NASA has typically been reluctant to specify it exactly. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan said the number was in the ‘high single digits to the low double digits,’ suggesting about a dozen launches. SpaceX would need to launch a ‘depot’ Starship and 11 ‘tanker’ Starships to fully load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage. Other officials have said ‘high teens,’ but now concerns are rising among some NASA officials that this might not be happening soon enough to allow SpaceX’s Starship rocket to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.

The number of Starship launches required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit such that it can fly out to the Moon, land there, and return to lunar orbit has been a moving target over the years. NASA has typically been reluctant to specify it exactly. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan said the number was in the ‘high single digits to the low double digits,’ suggesting about a dozen launches. SpaceX would need to launch a ‘depot’ Starship and 11 ‘tanker’ Starships to fully load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage. Other officials have said ‘high teens,’ but now concerns are rising among some NASA officials that this might not be happening soon enough to allow SpaceX’s Starship rocket to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.

The number of Starship launches required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit such that it can fly out to the Moon, land there, and return to lunar orbit has been a moving target over the years. NASA has typically been reluctant to specify it exactly. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan said the number was in the ‘high single digits to the low double digits,’ suggesting about a dozen launches. SpaceX would need to launch a ‘depot’ Starship and 11 ‘tanker’ Starships to fully load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage. Other officials have said ‘high teens,’ but now concerns are rising among some NASA officials that this might not be happening soon enough to allow SpaceX’s Starship rocket to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.

A new estimate emerges from the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel’s quarterly meeting, where panel member Charlie Precourt (a former NASA astronaut) spoke about risks associated with the Artemis Program and landing humans on the Moon. This is the latest in a series of estimates that have shown the number of Starship launches required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit such that it can fly out to the Moon, land there, and return to lunar orbit has been a moving target over the years. NASA has typically been reluctant to specify it exactly. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan said the number was in the ‘high single digits to the low double digits,’ suggesting about a dozen launches. SpaceX would need to launch a ‘depot’ Starship and 11 ‘tanker’ Starships to fully load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage. Other officials have said ‘high teens,’ but now concerns are rising among some NASA officials that this might not be happening soon enough to allow SpaceX’s Starship rocket to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon for NASA as part of Artemis this decade.

NASA does not have, nor want, nuclear weapons. But when it comes to a particular metric that is part of the Artemis Program to land people on the Moon, NASA guards a particular number like it is trying to prevent outsiders from cracking nuclear codes.

This number has been a moving target over the years. The general response from NASA has typically been, ‘We don’t know for sure, so we’re not going to say.’ In 2023, for example, the then-director of NASA’s Human Landing System, Lisa Watson-Morgan, told Ars, “We have a general idea, but I’m reluctant to say exactly what that is.”

Later, she said the number was in the “high single digits to the low double digits.” That suggests about a dozen launches, which is a lot. SpaceX would need to launch a “depot” Starship, and then 11 “tanker” Starships to fully load it with liquid oxygen and methane propellant for a lunar voyage. Other officials have said “high teens.” The hope has always been that SpaceX would dramatically improve the lift capacity of Starship to bring down the number of tanker flights.